Fraktálový model posúdenia rizík (fram) – návrh

Abstract

This article introduces the Fractal Risk Assessment Model (FRAM), a novel approach to quantifying and visualising risk in complex physical infrastructure, such as water utilities. Traditional risk assessment methods often struggle to capture the multi-layered and spatially intricate nature of modern security systems. Drawing on fractal geometry concepts, FRAM treats risk as a spatially structured problem where critical properties can recur across various scales. The model integrates classic probability (P) and impact (D) with two key fractal indicators: Fractal Dimension (Df), which quantifies the structural complexity, and Lacunarity (Lf), representing the distribution of unprotected "gaps" or "empty spaces" within the security layout. By defining risk as Rf = P * D * (Df * Lf), FRAM provides a quantifiable measure that reflects both an object's inherent complexity and the completeness of its protective measures. The article applies FRAM to a hypothetical water utility, demonstrating its capability to identify vulnerabilities and assess risk more precisely than linear models, thereby offering valuable insights for enhancing physical security management. The article is intended for experts in risk assessment, security management, and project managers, particularly in the field of security.